Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 11.413256 13.092812 14.906624 17.007576 19.370552 21.942455 24.949989
2025-03-23 9.057683 11.348620 14.017986 17.343927 21.361644 26.042137 31.890391
2025-03-30 7.958701 10.548615 13.714926 17.843869 23.055919 29.383877 37.611766
2025-04-06 6.842599 9.550213 13.008892 17.708679 23.879612 31.651369 42.116672
2025-04-13 5.702785 8.345289 11.858470 16.813188 23.552280 32.320201 44.496943
2025-04-20 5.217983 7.954517 11.719826 17.201159 24.882174 35.152327 49.787402
2025-04-27 4.796076 7.594616 11.569573 17.527165 26.105901 37.864128 55.013500
2025-05-04 4.314835 7.090917 11.157669 17.426758 26.692898 39.697042 59.086378
2025-05-11 3.861973 6.579123 10.679956 17.174436 27.015617 41.139598 62.641077
2025-05-18 3.537237 6.231792 10.412817 17.201528 27.726622 43.144735 67.064865
2025-05-25 3.290686 5.983931 10.273084 17.401434 28.690413 45.543554 72.149576
2025-06-01 3.026513 5.679459 10.014654 17.386620 29.306931 47.434114 76.539913
2025-06-08 2.745136 5.324211 9.653577 17.193065 29.649300 48.954581 80.494252
2025-06-15 2.557112 5.114896 9.517415 17.355330 30.563883 51.394978 85.971305
2025-06-22 2.456010 5.051546 9.620941 17.918392 32.150853 54.946949 93.319834
2025-06-29 2.248997 4.770026 9.319473 17.761063 32.521925 56.564159 97.652735
2025-07-06 1.956375 4.294023 8.630165 16.870337 31.587017 56.001543 98.422174
2025-07-13 1.869243 4.213841 8.656736 17.256963 32.868633 59.134877 105.352896
2025-07-20 1.780908 4.122247 8.653396 17.584807 34.057781 62.155925 112.208107
2025-07-27 1.647394 3.923437 8.429014 17.483797 34.469915 63.868334 116.921802
2025-08-03 1.508598 3.699088 8.136373 17.230838 34.585971 65.066300 120.793943
2025-08-10 1.411983 3.556927 7.995365 17.257973 35.213208 67.171782 126.299227
2025-08-17 1.340391 3.463567 7.945593 17.458481 36.170136 69.891059 132.968248